The Roofing Labor Crisis Isn’t Coming — It’s Already Here

What 2030 Will Look Like for Contractors Who Aren’t Paying Attention

Construction employment was flat in 2025.

Read that again.

Not down. Not growing. Flat.

At the same time, we’re seeing ongoing enforcement actions, slower immigration inflows, and an aging workforce that was already stretched thin before any of this accelerated. Yet many contractors are still planning their next five years as if labor will be available when they need it. That assumption is dangerous.

The next challenge in roofing isn’t going to be finding work. It’s going to be finding crews.

And by 2030, the contractors who understand that shift will look very different from the ones who don’t.

The Workforce Reality We Can’t Ignore

Let’s take politics out of it and just look at the structure.

• A significant percentage of construction workers are foreign-born.

• Roofing skews even higher in many markets.

• The average age of skilled trades workers continues to climb.

• Fewer young workers are entering the trades at the same rate as older workers are exiting.

Historically, immigration and mobility filled workforce gaps. When demand increased, labor supply expanded. That relationship is weakening.

When construction employment is flat during periods of demand, that’s not stability. That’s a constraint.

It means growth is already limited by labor availability. And labor does not replenish quickly in our industry.

You can buy materials. You can finance equipment. You cannot manufacture experienced roofers overnight.

Labor Will Become the Growth Limiter

For decades, roofing contractors have thought in terms of revenue growth. Bigger projects. Larger volume. More squares installed. More crews added. That model assumes labor is expandable. But what happens when it’s not?

When labor supply tightens, growth is no longer determined by demand. It’s determined by how many productive labor hours you can deploy. That shifts the key metric from total revenue to something far more important:

Revenue per labor hour.

By 2030, the most successful contractors won’t necessarily be the biggest. They’ll be the ones extracting the highest value from the labor they have. Volume without labor discipline becomes margin erosion.

The Industry Is Quietly Shifting

Whether contractors recognize it or not, the industry is already adjusting in three major ways.

1. Service Is Becoming Strategic

Service and maintenance divisions use:

• Smaller crews

• Tighter scheduling

• Higher margin per hour

• Recurring revenue streams

In a labor-constrained environment, those advantages compound.

A production-only contractor needs large, coordinated crews to generate revenue. A service-driven contractor generates strong revenue with fewer people and more control.

By 2030, service won’t be an add-on. It will be the core operating model for stable contractors.

2. Consolidation Will Accelerate

Private equity and strategic buyers are not chasing volume. They’re chasing:

• Predictable cash flow

• Recurring revenue

• Documented systems

• Service portfolios

• Measured technician productivity

Production-heavy companies dependent on large labor forces and thin margins will struggle to maintain valuation.

Service-based, system-driven companies will command premiums.

That divide is already visible. It will widen.

3. Technology Becomes Labor Multiplication

This isn’t about “cool tools.”

It’s about doing more with fewer people.

• Dispatch optimization.

• Standardized estimating.

• Technician productivity tracking.

• Photo documentation.

• Remote inspections.

• Operational dashboards.

Technology will not replace roofers. It will separate contractors who need 10 people to generate $5 million from those who can do it with 7. In a tight labor market, that difference determines who grows and who stalls.

What Smart Contractors Should Be Doing Now

Waiting for labor conditions to improve is not a strategy.

Here’s what is:

Build a Real Service Division

Not a repair department. A structured, revenue-accountable service division with:

• Defined KPIs

• Contracted maintenance programs

• Scheduled recurring work

Measure Revenue Per Technician

Know exactly what each tech produces. Track productivity, not just hours worked.

Standardize Estimating and Production Rates

Guesswork inflates labor usage. Standardization protects margin.

Invest in Operational Systems

Scheduling, dispatch, job costing — these are not optional in a constrained labor market.

Stop Chasing Low-Margin Volume

If labor is limited, it must be allocated to work that generates a strong return per hour.

The Hard Truth About 2030

By 2030, the industry divide won’t be:

• Large vs small

• Commercial vs residential

• Union vs non-union

It will be:

Service-driven and system-driven versus Production-dependent and labor-heavy

The second group will feel pressure first as labor tightens. The first group will remain stable — and in many cases, grow.

Final Thought

The roofing labor crisis isn’t coming. It’s already here. Flat employment during demand cycles is not neutral. It’s a warning.

The contractors who win over the next five years won’t be the ones who grow the fastest. They’ll be the ones who learn how to do more with fewer people — and build businesses that aren’t dependent on expanding crews to expand revenue.

• Service.

• Systems.

• Revenue per labor hour.

That’s where 2030 is headed. And the time to adjust isn’t five years from now.

It’s today.

—

John H Kenney III.

Advisor to Commercial Roofing Contractors

Cotney Consulting Group